Ukraine Worries keep Pushing Gold Higher; Dollar Struggles further

In what has been a constant theme for this past week, conditions on the ground over in the Ukraine region have generated nervous safe-haven related buying in the gold market. With equities looking a bit wobbly, some investors are selling stocks and buying gold ( the reverse of what they had been doing for all of last year). Throw on top of the fact that the Dollar continues to be losing friends of late, and the path of least resistance for the yellow metal has been higher.

The strong finish to close out the week puts the market on really firm footing as we head into next week. The wild card, and the potential to be a big spoiler, is this weekend's referendum in the Crimea. If the votes goes as many expect ( with the region voting to become a part of the Russian Federation) and all hell does NOT break loose, there is a very good chance that gold will see a fairly substantial amount of selling come the reopening of trading Sunday evening here in the US ( Monday morning in Asia).

Geopolitical events, by their very nature, are incredibly volatile. As such, both buying and selling tied to these sorts of things is completely emotion driven. That means the losing side acts first and thinks later. All they know is that they are on the wrong side of a trade and their account balance is disappearing. So out they run. Volume tends to run quite high during such times.

What this means is very simple - you have a 50/50 chance of getting it right as a trader when dealing with geopolitical events. I personally will NEVER trade those odds. Why not just hit the casino and roll the dice because that is about the same set of odds. Traders deal with favorable probabilities based on technical analysis. If you want to test your luck, try picking up some out of the money put or call options depending on your perspective and roll the dice on those. At least you know what the extent of your losses is going in while leaving the upside open for some good profits if you happen to hit it right.

I do wonder however with all the hype about massed troops on the border, Western sanctions, deadlines, etc. whether or not the gold market has already factored in most of those expectations. If things disappoint in the sense that WWIII does not break loose, I would expect to see the selling show up. If the conditions worsen, then gold will move higher as it factors in another  and more dangerous scenario.

That is how markets work. They anticipate events ( that is why it is called a "FUTURES" market and not a PAST or a PRESENT market. If the events materialize within expectations, more often than not you get a case of "Buy the Rumor; Sell the Fact". If the events do not unfold as expected, then the reactions can be quite severe, either up or down depending on the particular turn of events and how it is being interpreted by players.

What I can say is that traders of both persuasions when it comes to gold ( bull or bear) had better have some very light and very fast trigger fingers come Sunday evening. They might just need them.

Here is the weekly chart for gold. This week's performance was a real doozy of a show put on by the bulls. I have included the note I put on this same chart earlier this week which stated that if they could close the week over the resistance zone noted, ( $1,350 - $1,355) they have a real shot at reaching psychological resistance at the $1,400 level. They did just that!

Again, the move has been predicated on fear/concerns over that situation in Ukraine ahead of this weekend's big vote so just be prepared because all of this could evaporate if the world does not end come Sunday evening. The obvious flip side - If tensions remain high, so too will the gold price remain supported.

Looking at the technical levels on the chart you can see a couple of things here - the first is that the ADX line is beginning to flatten out. That is suggesting that the sideways action ( on an intermediate term basis the market has merely been moving in a sideways range between $1180-1200 on the bottom and $1425 or so on the top) could be coming to an end and that the POTENTIAL ( please note the use of the word) exists for this broad consolidation pattern to be coming to an end being replaced by a trending move higher.

That spike high near and around the $1,425 level would need to be taken out to shift this particular indicator that I favor into a trending mode. If it were to do so, one could easily make the technical case that a move back up to retest the broken FORMERLY MAJOR SUPPORT near $1,525 is reachable.

The Dollar's action would of course be key to this as well for if it cannot stay above 79 on the USDX chart, I do not believe gold will fail at the $1425 level. Any weakness in the Dollar of that nature would send a lot of strong speculative inflows into gold and those should be enough to better that spike high.

Again, let's see how events unfold over the weekend.

China Woes Becoming Mainstream News

I have made no secret of the fact that I am most concerned about a wave of credit/debt issues coming to China sooner rather than later. As a matter of fact, Dr. Copper has been accurately forecasting this for longer than many of the so-called expert analysts.

While I view this development as a deflationary force globally, which should pressure certain key commodity markets, it also seems to be one of the factors bringing some safe haven buying into the gold market at the current time.

My own view is that if there were another deflationary wave that might threaten to engulf the world economy again, gold would struggle in such an environment. This view is based off of what happened to the metal during the outbreak of the credit crisis here in the US in the summer of 2008.

However, back then the Dollar was the recipient of strong safe haven flows. Thus far we are not seeing that and that is why gold continues to remain resilient in the face of these deflationary news. For now, gold is benefitting from nervous equity investors seeking a safe haven from unsettling winds that are buffeting the global economy.

Here is the headline from the article I suggest you read:

China's Li Keqiang warns investors to prepare for wave of bankruptcies
World's second largest economy is facing 'serious challenges' and many companies with high debts are being forced to the wall

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/china-li-keqiang-wans-investors-bankruptcies

Fed Custodial Accounts Show Big Drop in Foreign Held US Treasuries

I have not commented on this for a long time but every week I do monitor the Federal Reserve's Custodial Accounts to try to get a sense of the amount of US Treasury obligations sitting "in the vault" in New York, held there for other foreign Central Banks.

I have been trying to get a sense of why we are seeing this general US Dollar weakness and have been at a loss to explain, especially of late during this geopolitical crisis over in Ukraine.

Take a look at the following chart of US Treasury Holdings by these Foreign Central Banks that are on deposit there in the Custodial account at the Fed.

Look at the steep plunge that has occurred since the beginning of this year. We have gone from a peak of near $3.021 Trillion to a current $2.855 Trillion. That is a drop of some $166 billion since the high point reached in the middle of December last year. Folks, that ain't exactly chump change.

 

Why this is occurring is unclear to me at this point but I feel it will be worthwhile to monitor this. As you can see on the same chart, we have seen episodes during which Foreign Central Banks tended to be fairly large sellers of Treasuries only to then have them return as big buyers. Much of course depends on their Balance of Trade with the US and how they sterilize their surpluses.

The steepness of the plunge is the largest I have yet observed on this chart in terms of the amount involved. In percentage terms, the reduction is approximately 5.5%.

I know that there are some that would be more than happy to jump on the bandwagon and attribute this to the outbreak of tensions surrounding the Ukranian crisis and all the chatter ( baseless in my view ) that Russia, even China and some throw in India, are threatening to dump US Treasuries as a way of waging a sort of financial warfare with the US should the West proceed with sanctions against Russia. However, this trend has been going on since the second week of December of last year, long before things flared up over there. Something else seems to be in play here, although I am unclear what that might be.

If global trade is slowing down, as some fear it will ( myself being among them), I can understand falling Dollar amounts being involved and thus a shrinking need for Treasury purchases for sterilization reasons. That would manifest itself, in my view, as a slower rate of purchases but not necessarily a dropping of the Dollar amount of Treasuries held in custody.

If that is the case AND if some of these Treasuries are maturing, and are not being rolled over in the new purchases, that would explain the shrinking number. It does make me wonder if that recent China data showing shrinking exports from that all-important nation, is indeed having an impact on these Custodial Accounts. This might be SOME of the reason behind the recent Dollar weakness.

Making this more interesting is the fact, that over that same period, from December 19,2013 (when the number of  Foreign Central Bank held Treasuries peaked) the Fed has purchased $98.6 Billion Treasuries as part of its ongoing QE program. While not the whole amount, it is still a fairly large number of Treasuries ( about 60% of the total reduction noted above).

The USDX closed at 80.75 on the week containing December 16,2013. Today it closed at 79.62. A little more than a full point but it does seem to me that some of this weakness in the greenback can be attributed to some of that reduction in those Treasury Custodial holdings.

As always, the more we learn of the doings across the global economy and the current financial system, the more factors we have to try to account for in attempting to understand the "why" behind changing money flow patterns.

Dollar Weakness Continuing

Do you not find it odd to say the least, that the US Dollar has not been able to garner any support in the form of safe haven buying related to the deteriorating crisis over in Ukraine? For how many years have we seen the greenback as the "Go-To" currency during times of financial or geopolitical crises.

Remember 2008? How about the European Sovereign Debt Crisis? How about that rush INTO the Dollar when the idea of a Fed tapering first began to surface.

What happened to all of that?

It sure makes me wonder if part of the issue is tied to the Obama administration's handling of its foreign policy issues.

One thing for sure is occurring however - Treasuries are getting a firm bid out of safe haven plays. That is dropping interest rates and appears to be undercutting the Dollar although one does wonder how a rush into Dollar-denominated Treasuries is not Dollar supportive. There are so many new and different developments in these markets anymore that attempting to understand them all is proving to be an exercise in futility.

What I do know however is that this persistent Dollar weakness, is providing a strong floor of support in the gold market.

In the past, when we did get a general round of Dollar selling, almost as if in inverse lockstep, the commodity sector would march higher as the weakness in the currency would trigger a big macro trade across the sector.

This is not occurring. Copper continues to sink lower and lower and while crude oil is managing a bit of a bounce today, the products are both weak. Individual commodity markets are powering higher ( Coffee, Hogs, Cotton) but the broad-based buying in the sector is lacking. You can see this in the relatively weak performance of silver compared to gold. Silver is following copper today and acting like an industrial metal rather than a monetary metal ( you never know what you are going to get with schizophrenic silver from day to day).

I am very closely monitoring this Dollar chart however. The market is poised right above an important chart support zone near the 79 level basis USDX. If that goes, I expect to see gold reach the psychological $1400 mark.

The ADX is now rising along with the Negative Directional Movement Indicator ( RED LINE) showing the bears are currently in control of the market and a trending move is looking more likely. Again, that will require the support zone to give way but unless the bulls make a firm stand here, they are going to cede complete control of the market to the bear camp.

The HUI looks like it woke up from its slumber of yesterday. It has finally managed to clear 250 which is a real positive. I need to see this index power above 280 for starters to conclude that a stronger bullish uptrend is developing. Still, one has to be happy for the long suffering mining sector bulls who have been mercilessly pummeled for so long. At least their portfolio balances are finally moving higher.

We'll have to see what develops further over in Ukraine but for now, it has certainly spooked equity bulls and that is sending money flows into both gold and Treasuries for the time being.

This Dollar weakness is troubling, very troubling...

Western Investment Demand Surfacing for Gold

I have been adamant in stating that without Western-based investment demand for gold, the market cannot mount any sustained rallies. Asian gold buying provides the solid floor of support underneath the gold market but in and of itself, CANNOT maintain gold in a sharp bullish trend move higher. That requires concerted effort by the big Western specs.

My friend John Brimelow's reports on Asian gold demand and premiums/discounts are the best source for gauging demand for the physical metal from that corner of the world but as a gauge of Western demand, I rely on the large gold ETF, GLD in particular. It is the best bellwether we have to determine whether or not we have some determined buying from this crowd.
We have finally seen some signs that this Western-origin demand is surfacing. Monday and Tuesday's number show a 7.5 ton increase in the reported holdings of GLD. With today's strong move higher in the metal, one would expect to see the number increase further. This is a good sign if you are a gold bull and looking for allies. It is a real shame that this Friday's COT report will not pick up the internal positioning of traders in today's move as I would dearly love to know how much FRESH long buying we are getting in comparison to the amount of short covering that is occurring this morning thus far among the speculative side of this market.

Please note that this has nothing to do with gold forward lease rates, backwardation claptrap or any of the wild theories that consistently are birthed out among the gold community. It has everything to do with good old-fashioned, easy-to-understand INVESTMENT DEMAND.

Here is a look at the chart:

 

The big driver for gold this AM is the announcement last evening of sanctions being prepared by the West against Russia depending on the outcome of the expected vote in the Crimea region this weekend. That has led to strong safe haven flows for the metal.

Further clouding the picture is disappointing economic news out of China.

Combined, both of the above have the equity markets nervous and this is leading to some outflows from stocks into both bonds and gold. You can see the concern in FALLING interest rates again.

Keep in mind what I have said before, gold needs an environment in which REAL interest rates are negative in order to thrive.

Very noteworthy is the fact that the US Dollar has not been able to garner much if any support during this latest round of events. That needs to be monitored.

If this is not enough to add some uncertainty, crude oil is doing what we could expect it to do on poor global economic news - it continues to sink lower. Copper's woes are also continuing.

Today we got (thus far) a big break lower in soybean prices. The Board structure shows a big drop in bean prices for later this year, barring any unexpected weather woes as the big S. American crop comes online. Issues in China and here in the US with the hog PEDV are expected to dent meal demand.

We now have sharply lower energy prices. Heating oil prices have dropped over $0.40/gallon since their spike peak early this year. Unleaded gasoline prices have lost $0.10 this month ( that is great news for cash strapped consumers). Crude is off nearly $7.00 this month thus far.

Thus there is going to be a deflationary tug lower coming from some commodities while others are firm. Meat prices will be higher this spring and into summer. In other words, the outlook from the commodity sector remains mixed. Some sectors are strong; others are weak.

The overall bias in the commodity sector as a whole is one that reflects the above. Notice that prices continue to work back and forth within a downtrending pattern. Lower highs continue but so do higher lows. In other words, there is no clear discernible trend in the sector as a whole at this time. Individual markets are responding to their own set of demand/supply fundamentals. This is how it should be in my humble view. We do not have the wild, reckless, mindless rush head-long into all things tangible that we have seen in the past by the hedge funds of the world. They appear to be more selective this time around ( finally ). Remember, they are net short copper as an example.

That means we will need a continued catalyst in the form of geopolitical uncertainties to keep gold strongly supported. It is NOT going to come from inflationary expectations UNLESS this chart confirms a strong upside breakout on a weekly basis. Those who keep endlessly screaming hyperinflation are NOT looking at the charts.

The US Dollar will therefore be key moving forward. Will it garner some safe haven buying or will it continue to languish? If it breaks down sharply on the charts, we will get some mindless commodity sector buying in expectation of a currency-induced cost push.

Back to gold briefly - the weekly chart shows how today's move higher is playing out on the intermediate term chart. If the bulls can maintain today's strong gains into the close of trading Friday, they have a real shot at taking the metal higher and even setting up a test of $1400. A change in the handle to "14" that could be maintained, would bring in an entirely new set of momentum based buyers. That will be a  tall order but if things deteriorate in the Crimea this weekend, it is certainly not out of the question.

As you can, the reason I say it is a tall order right now is due to the following chart. The miners, while the chart has stopped going down, are certainly not lighting the world on fire. They have not managed to make it anywhere near the 280 level and are certainly no where close to closing that big gap below the 300 level. Whether or not one likes it, the miners still tend to lead the bullion (maybe this time will be different) and based on that, it is not exactly a ringing endorsement of gold at this point. The week is still young however so let's keep an eye on things.