The WGC just laid a heavy weight on the gold market this evening as their report detailing Chinese demand for the metal ( or more properly - its lack thereof ) is getting more circulation.
The reason? They expect demand from China to remain flat in 2014. That is a far cry from what has been the norm since 2002, from whence gold demand has increased every year since.
The report mentions what most of us who follow the gold market closely already knew - namely that Chinese gold demand in 2013 vaulted a remarkable 32%. Of course, that was the result of the very low price to which gold had fallen from its lofty perch up above $1900. China loves a bargain and gold was at bargain prices last year.
Dow Jones cites the managing director for the Far East at the World Gold Council as saying that they expect gold demand for 2014 to be 'on par with 2013'.
Gold began to drop sharply as the report circulated. My own thinking is that were it not for the current escalation in Ukraine tensions, it would have suffered much harder.
If WGC report is indeed accurate, and apparently many are thinking at this hour that it is, gold is going to face yet one more additional headwind. Remember, it has been this strong physical offtake from Asia, especially China, that has tended to bottom gold prices in the past especially in the face of reduced Western investment interest in the metal. If that Chinese buying fades, and if interest rates here in the US begin to perk up, gold could be in trouble.
It is too early to say yet, but bulls had better not blink or they are going to be playing defense. Funds, while still net longs in this market, are beginning to add to their short positions.
الاثنين، 14 أبريل 2014
السبت، 12 أبريل 2014
Looking Closer at the Pork Market
Not that long ago I sent up a post about the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report issued by the folks over at the USDA. I took issue with some of that data as it conflicted with their own weekly slaughter data. Whether that is here or there no longer matters in terms of the futures market reaction because ultimately, the markets always have the last word on these things.
I have to always laugh at the commentary coming out of gold community when the breathless remarks about flash crashes makes the rounds as if somehow such things are unique to only the gold market. Those who regularly trade the ag markets can vouchsafe for the sharp increases in volatility and extreme intraday swings in price that now, sadly, seem to be the new normal.
The hog market has reached levels of volatility that I have never before witnessed in my entire trading career of nearly 25 years. I remarked the other day that they are much more like the old pork belly contract that some of us cut our trading teeth on. Just this week we went from limit down to limit up in the matter of less than two hours time without the least bit of news. I could blame it on JP Morgan attempting to suppress the price of hogs at the behest of the feds, but alas, that would be as ridiculous as those who continue to regale us with flash crash chatter and 1% mandated price caps in gold.
The reason for all this goes back to that Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report we got at the end of last month. The simple truth is no one is really quite sure what the true impact from that devastating PED virus has been in the industry. We all know that it has been severe; what we do not know is the actual number of deaths resulting from it. In effect, the industry is still dealing with a huge unknown. That is contributing to the wild swings in price as those who disbelieve the report continue to buy any breaks in price while those who believe the report continue to sell any rallies in price.
One thing appears to be sure - the report has quelled the panic buying that was evident in the product market with wholesale pork prices now coming back down to earth after reaching levels that were unheard of. AT the risk of boring those who are primarily interest in gold, bonds and currencies and not the ag markets, the price of the pork trim that goes into making hot dogs, for example, jumped from near $0.63/pound at the beginning of the year to a eye-popping $1.45/pound earlier this month. That is an increase of over 100% in 4 months' time! I wonder if the folks over at Oscar Meyer and BallPark have recovered from their shock yet!
There is one bit of evidence however that shows, in spite of the impact from the disease, things are not quite as dire as many expected.
Take a look at the following chart. It is the total pork production here in the US for each week of the year. I have included the year 2012 just for a reference point but am primarily interested in this year's production compared to the previous year ( 2013) to gauge the impact from the virus.
The BLUE line is this year's production while the BLACK line is last year's. Notice that we started out the year with pork production exceeding last year's levels as the impact from the virus was not yet becoming evident. In early March the impact then hit and did it ever hit! By the middle of that month, total pork production fell some 32-33 MILLION POUNDS below the level in 2013. The panic then started big time. Prices for wholesale pork, which were already rising in anticipation of a shortage this spring/summer took off in earnest as apocalyptic type predictions began circulating through the industry.
I quipped to one of the news wire reporters that the US hog herd had been completely eradicated by the virus.
Please note that I am in no wise attempting to make fun of the severe impact that those hog producers who have sadly been impacted from this virus have had to contend with. I have the utmost respect for our hog producers who battle regulations and other difficulties associated with feeding us. We are talking about their livelihood being impacted and that is no joking matter. I am however merely pointing out how news stories take on a life of their own whenever prices start escalating. It was the same thing with gold back when it first cleared $1800 and then $1900 a couple of years ago. Some things never change in the markets, remember that.
Back to the chart however - notice what appears to be happening with that BLUE line however in relation to the BLACK line as the month progresses. For all practical purposes, it is at the same exact level as that from 2013. How to explain this when we have so many pigs being killed by this scourge of a virus?
The answer is in the weight chart shown below. Once again we have the BLUE line for this year ( 2014 ) in comparison to the BLACK line ( 2013 ). Hogs are coming in between 7 - 9 pounds heavier than at the same time last year. The average reader will be tempted to say, " So what?".
Look at it this way, if weekly hog slaughter comes in near the 2 million mark, that is an extra 14 - 18 million more pounds of pork each week. Please note that I am not allowing for waste - this is just for the sake of simplicity. What is happening is that hog producers, especially those who have suffered losses and who do have remaining hogs, are feeding them to heavier weights in an attempt to mitigate some of the impact from the disease.
Hogs, like cattle, are priced by weight. Assuming the quality of the animal is the same, a heavier weight hog or steer is going to fetch more money from the packer for its owner. Now an extra 7 - 9 pounds may not sound like much, but if you are selling a fair number of animals, that extra money from the same animal certainly helps out.
What appears to be happening is that while hog slaughter numbers are currently running below last year's levels, the total amount of pork actually being produced is higher than the losses from the disease would seem to indicate at face value. Heavier hog weights are offsetting a large amount of the reduced slaughter numbers.
The big question that the industry has at this point is whether or not we have seen the worst of the impact from the virus as the recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report indicated we would or if the worse is yet to come this summer. No one knows for sure and that is what is contributing to the volatility in this market.
I will say this however, the fact that total pork production is running pretty close to last year's levels at this point, makes me very suspect that the extremely high prices we are currently seeing in the wholesale pork trade is going to continue for long. As a matter of fact, I am coming around to the opinion that we have now seen the worst ( or best depending on one's perspective ) of the price rises in pork and that this year's peak in prices seen earlier this month are the BEST we are going to see for the remainder of the year. Please note that I am speaking of the entire carcass and not individual cuts which may fluctuate in price as seasonal demand ebbs and flows. Still, in the case of trim for example, how can one justify a price increase of over 100% in 4 months' time when pork production is now running only slightly behind last year's levels? That is pure panic that produced such a thing - it is certainly not based on reality.
Hog producers might want to take notice of this and plan your risk management program accordingly. This industry has had some very difficult times over the last few years with corn prices soaring to all time highs near $8.00 and meal prices out of sight. Many producers have lost money for so long that they think they are hallucinating when they see these stratospheric prices in hogs and relatively cheap - by recent comparison - feed costs. I am glad for them as they are due for a break. However, one of the dangers of a market which is soaring upward and in which sentiment becomes so overwhelmingly bullish is that producers get caught up in the emotion and caution goes out the window. Why? Because they are just sure even higher prices are yet to come.
I would caution them to avoid making the mistake of allowing euphoria and greed to take the place of a sound risk management program. Hogs are at levels, even after the big retreat in price as a result of the Quarterly Report, where producers can lock in some incredibly, perhaps once in a lifetime kind of profits. Could they go higher? Sure they could - markets can do almost anything especially in our modern age of idiocy due to computers making trading decisions instead of human beings. But, they could also go lower, much lower IF, and this is a big IF, USDA's numbers actually get confirmed as being reflective of what is happening on the ground. Why take the chance especially if you can lock in GUARANTEED outstanding margins on some of your expected 2nd and 3rd quarter production. If you want to keep some out as gambling stocks that is fine, but why bet the farm on even higher prices especially seeing that the profits that the Board is currently guaranteeing you are ripe for the picking.
Also consider one more thing and this is from the technical perspective - look at the positioning of the big speculators in this market. Even after a sharp break in price, the big specs, HEDGE FUNDS and OTHER LARGE REPORTABLES, still remain overwhelming bullish on this market. Look at the positioning of the LARGE COMMERCIAL interests however, they are barely off an all time high RECORD SHORT POSITION. They expect lower prices, not higher....
This imbalance is not going to last forever. So far, the big specs have been willing to put their money at risk and defend those massive long positions by eagerly buying up dips in price as they are convinced that the worse of the impact of the PED virus is yet to come. Perhaps it is - perhaps it is not. If it is, then the big specs will have been proven to be correct ( much to the chagrin of the small specs who are siding with the commercials ). If it is not however, a mass exodus of speculative longs from this market would unleash a round of price carnage that would be devastating for any hog producer who did not take some measures to mitigate downside risk for his product.
I am especially worried about 4th quarter hogs as they are trading at levels which still seem rather bubbly to me based on the trend in total pork production that I am seeing. Fourth quarter hogs are still trading way above historical norms in price. I do not know if the current trend in these higher hog weights is going to continue the rest of the year - my guess is that it will as long as corn remains cheap. If it does, and if the expansion efforts that USDA noted in that recent Quarterly report continue, and which caught a lot of industry pundits by surprise I might add, we could see total pork production actually EXCEED last year's levels later this year.
I will admit that there are a lot of, "if's" in this analysis, but I note these things as one who has seen a lot of frenzies over the years of my trading career. They can end as suddenly as they begin with the result being a complete erasure of the entire move higher in a sector as the market moves back more toward historical norms.
One more thing and I am done - so far new crop corn is hovering around the $5.00/bushel mark. Beans remain expensive but that is mainly old crop. Soybean carryover should become more comfortable later this year, especially as market demand shifts to S. America. Let's hope that we have a good growing season for our corn and bean crops up here in the Northern Hemisphere this year with the result that we do not see any extreme price rises in feed costs. Hog producers, along with cattle producers I might add, have dealt with high priced grain long enough. They are due for a season of stable yet affordable prices for their feed. If they can get this, they should be profitable for the foreseeable future and that is good news to a group of extremely dedicated and hard working livestock producers.
Those livestock producers who can secure feed coverage and lock in profitable selling prices should do so knowing that they have secured themselves excellent profits and can sleep at night even while the computers wreak havoc in the futures market. They should also understand that they are not speculators but are producers - leave the betting to the specs.
I have to always laugh at the commentary coming out of gold community when the breathless remarks about flash crashes makes the rounds as if somehow such things are unique to only the gold market. Those who regularly trade the ag markets can vouchsafe for the sharp increases in volatility and extreme intraday swings in price that now, sadly, seem to be the new normal.
The hog market has reached levels of volatility that I have never before witnessed in my entire trading career of nearly 25 years. I remarked the other day that they are much more like the old pork belly contract that some of us cut our trading teeth on. Just this week we went from limit down to limit up in the matter of less than two hours time without the least bit of news. I could blame it on JP Morgan attempting to suppress the price of hogs at the behest of the feds, but alas, that would be as ridiculous as those who continue to regale us with flash crash chatter and 1% mandated price caps in gold.
The reason for all this goes back to that Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report we got at the end of last month. The simple truth is no one is really quite sure what the true impact from that devastating PED virus has been in the industry. We all know that it has been severe; what we do not know is the actual number of deaths resulting from it. In effect, the industry is still dealing with a huge unknown. That is contributing to the wild swings in price as those who disbelieve the report continue to buy any breaks in price while those who believe the report continue to sell any rallies in price.
One thing appears to be sure - the report has quelled the panic buying that was evident in the product market with wholesale pork prices now coming back down to earth after reaching levels that were unheard of. AT the risk of boring those who are primarily interest in gold, bonds and currencies and not the ag markets, the price of the pork trim that goes into making hot dogs, for example, jumped from near $0.63/pound at the beginning of the year to a eye-popping $1.45/pound earlier this month. That is an increase of over 100% in 4 months' time! I wonder if the folks over at Oscar Meyer and BallPark have recovered from their shock yet!
There is one bit of evidence however that shows, in spite of the impact from the disease, things are not quite as dire as many expected.
Take a look at the following chart. It is the total pork production here in the US for each week of the year. I have included the year 2012 just for a reference point but am primarily interested in this year's production compared to the previous year ( 2013) to gauge the impact from the virus.
The BLUE line is this year's production while the BLACK line is last year's. Notice that we started out the year with pork production exceeding last year's levels as the impact from the virus was not yet becoming evident. In early March the impact then hit and did it ever hit! By the middle of that month, total pork production fell some 32-33 MILLION POUNDS below the level in 2013. The panic then started big time. Prices for wholesale pork, which were already rising in anticipation of a shortage this spring/summer took off in earnest as apocalyptic type predictions began circulating through the industry.
I quipped to one of the news wire reporters that the US hog herd had been completely eradicated by the virus.
Please note that I am in no wise attempting to make fun of the severe impact that those hog producers who have sadly been impacted from this virus have had to contend with. I have the utmost respect for our hog producers who battle regulations and other difficulties associated with feeding us. We are talking about their livelihood being impacted and that is no joking matter. I am however merely pointing out how news stories take on a life of their own whenever prices start escalating. It was the same thing with gold back when it first cleared $1800 and then $1900 a couple of years ago. Some things never change in the markets, remember that.
Back to the chart however - notice what appears to be happening with that BLUE line however in relation to the BLACK line as the month progresses. For all practical purposes, it is at the same exact level as that from 2013. How to explain this when we have so many pigs being killed by this scourge of a virus?
The answer is in the weight chart shown below. Once again we have the BLUE line for this year ( 2014 ) in comparison to the BLACK line ( 2013 ). Hogs are coming in between 7 - 9 pounds heavier than at the same time last year. The average reader will be tempted to say, " So what?".
Look at it this way, if weekly hog slaughter comes in near the 2 million mark, that is an extra 14 - 18 million more pounds of pork each week. Please note that I am not allowing for waste - this is just for the sake of simplicity. What is happening is that hog producers, especially those who have suffered losses and who do have remaining hogs, are feeding them to heavier weights in an attempt to mitigate some of the impact from the disease.
Hogs, like cattle, are priced by weight. Assuming the quality of the animal is the same, a heavier weight hog or steer is going to fetch more money from the packer for its owner. Now an extra 7 - 9 pounds may not sound like much, but if you are selling a fair number of animals, that extra money from the same animal certainly helps out.
What appears to be happening is that while hog slaughter numbers are currently running below last year's levels, the total amount of pork actually being produced is higher than the losses from the disease would seem to indicate at face value. Heavier hog weights are offsetting a large amount of the reduced slaughter numbers.
The big question that the industry has at this point is whether or not we have seen the worst of the impact from the virus as the recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report indicated we would or if the worse is yet to come this summer. No one knows for sure and that is what is contributing to the volatility in this market.
I will say this however, the fact that total pork production is running pretty close to last year's levels at this point, makes me very suspect that the extremely high prices we are currently seeing in the wholesale pork trade is going to continue for long. As a matter of fact, I am coming around to the opinion that we have now seen the worst ( or best depending on one's perspective ) of the price rises in pork and that this year's peak in prices seen earlier this month are the BEST we are going to see for the remainder of the year. Please note that I am speaking of the entire carcass and not individual cuts which may fluctuate in price as seasonal demand ebbs and flows. Still, in the case of trim for example, how can one justify a price increase of over 100% in 4 months' time when pork production is now running only slightly behind last year's levels? That is pure panic that produced such a thing - it is certainly not based on reality.
Hog producers might want to take notice of this and plan your risk management program accordingly. This industry has had some very difficult times over the last few years with corn prices soaring to all time highs near $8.00 and meal prices out of sight. Many producers have lost money for so long that they think they are hallucinating when they see these stratospheric prices in hogs and relatively cheap - by recent comparison - feed costs. I am glad for them as they are due for a break. However, one of the dangers of a market which is soaring upward and in which sentiment becomes so overwhelmingly bullish is that producers get caught up in the emotion and caution goes out the window. Why? Because they are just sure even higher prices are yet to come.
I would caution them to avoid making the mistake of allowing euphoria and greed to take the place of a sound risk management program. Hogs are at levels, even after the big retreat in price as a result of the Quarterly Report, where producers can lock in some incredibly, perhaps once in a lifetime kind of profits. Could they go higher? Sure they could - markets can do almost anything especially in our modern age of idiocy due to computers making trading decisions instead of human beings. But, they could also go lower, much lower IF, and this is a big IF, USDA's numbers actually get confirmed as being reflective of what is happening on the ground. Why take the chance especially if you can lock in GUARANTEED outstanding margins on some of your expected 2nd and 3rd quarter production. If you want to keep some out as gambling stocks that is fine, but why bet the farm on even higher prices especially seeing that the profits that the Board is currently guaranteeing you are ripe for the picking.
Also consider one more thing and this is from the technical perspective - look at the positioning of the big speculators in this market. Even after a sharp break in price, the big specs, HEDGE FUNDS and OTHER LARGE REPORTABLES, still remain overwhelming bullish on this market. Look at the positioning of the LARGE COMMERCIAL interests however, they are barely off an all time high RECORD SHORT POSITION. They expect lower prices, not higher....
This imbalance is not going to last forever. So far, the big specs have been willing to put their money at risk and defend those massive long positions by eagerly buying up dips in price as they are convinced that the worse of the impact of the PED virus is yet to come. Perhaps it is - perhaps it is not. If it is, then the big specs will have been proven to be correct ( much to the chagrin of the small specs who are siding with the commercials ). If it is not however, a mass exodus of speculative longs from this market would unleash a round of price carnage that would be devastating for any hog producer who did not take some measures to mitigate downside risk for his product.
I am especially worried about 4th quarter hogs as they are trading at levels which still seem rather bubbly to me based on the trend in total pork production that I am seeing. Fourth quarter hogs are still trading way above historical norms in price. I do not know if the current trend in these higher hog weights is going to continue the rest of the year - my guess is that it will as long as corn remains cheap. If it does, and if the expansion efforts that USDA noted in that recent Quarterly report continue, and which caught a lot of industry pundits by surprise I might add, we could see total pork production actually EXCEED last year's levels later this year.
I will admit that there are a lot of, "if's" in this analysis, but I note these things as one who has seen a lot of frenzies over the years of my trading career. They can end as suddenly as they begin with the result being a complete erasure of the entire move higher in a sector as the market moves back more toward historical norms.
One more thing and I am done - so far new crop corn is hovering around the $5.00/bushel mark. Beans remain expensive but that is mainly old crop. Soybean carryover should become more comfortable later this year, especially as market demand shifts to S. America. Let's hope that we have a good growing season for our corn and bean crops up here in the Northern Hemisphere this year with the result that we do not see any extreme price rises in feed costs. Hog producers, along with cattle producers I might add, have dealt with high priced grain long enough. They are due for a season of stable yet affordable prices for their feed. If they can get this, they should be profitable for the foreseeable future and that is good news to a group of extremely dedicated and hard working livestock producers.
Those livestock producers who can secure feed coverage and lock in profitable selling prices should do so knowing that they have secured themselves excellent profits and can sleep at night even while the computers wreak havoc in the futures market. They should also understand that they are not speculators but are producers - leave the betting to the specs.
الجمعة، 11 أبريل 2014
Gold Stuck Below $1320
In looking at the following chart, it is not difficult to see that gold has run into a area of resistance near the $1320 level. Gold did a bit of a bid as some money exiting equities found a home in the yellow metal but many traders continue to use rallies as opportunities to sell out of existing long positions or establish new shorts.
Adding to the general lack of enthusiasm for gold at this time is the lackluster performance of the mining shares which continue to act as an anchor on any upward movement of the yellow metal.
Looking forward into next week, if gold is going to generate some more excitement, it is going to have to break through this week's high and convincingly clear the $1340 level. If it can do so, you will see some hedge fund short covering. If it stalls here near this level, watch for further long liquidation and some more new short selling to emerge. If the bears can change the handle from "13" back to "12", $1280 will come back into play at the lower portion of the recent trading range.
In looking over this week's Commitment of Traders report, we saw a reduction in the net long position of the hedge fund community of nearly 8,000 contracts. Most of that came from long liquidation ahead of the FOMC with a smaller contribution by the addition of some 2500 new short positions from the hedgies. That FOMC statement gave the bulls some fodder but it was a sort of two-edged sword.
One edge was clearly its dovish tone which suggested that interest rates will stay near zero for longer than many market participants were led to expect by the same Fed. The other edge was the clear concern expressed about the lack of inflationary pressures. The Fed, along with the ECB I might add, is clearly worried about deflationary issues. When the Central Bank expresses its concern over the lack of inflation in the economy, it is certainly not a ringing endorsement of a stronger gold price.
Along that line, the PPI numbers that came out today were quite a shock to the market as the number for March came in at a rise of 0.5%. The result was another set of headwinds to buffet gold as traders interpreted that data as evidence that the Fed could actually accelerate its bond buying program and any interest rate hike. Those are negative for gold especially when the market had just gotten the Fed's comments about the lack of inflation a mere two days earlier!
JP Morgan's earnings numbers set the negative tone for the overall stock market today. The broad selloff in equities was one of the reasons that gold did not break down as sharply as some might have expected. The Dollar showed some buoyancy today on the heels of that PPI number but not enough to set it up for a sharp rally.
All in all, it was a day in which volatility in the currency markets and in gold, was relatively mild by comparison to recent days.
Such was not the case in the grain markets, where news of Chinese rejection of corn shipments roiled that market with some spillover being seen in the soybeans. Apparently the Chinese are balking on imports of biotech corn. Reports indicate that China has rejected 1.45 million metric tons of US corn since mid-November. The reason? They claim it contained an unapproved variety of corn which was developed by the Swiss seed maker Sygenta. The variety is called Viptera. Also involved is another variety Duracade.
The National Grain and Feed Association, in a report circulated among its members, expressed the concern that pollen drift ( through the wind ) will make it unavoidable that the variety will impact corn shipments into China. Obviously big US grain shippers are worried. At least for today, that seem to supercede the latest USDA carryover numbers that we got this week.
A quick comment on the S&P 500. I mentioned in a post yesterday that an important support zone on the weekly chart was between 1830 - 1820. The market closed below that level today which puts it in a negative posture as we move into next week. Defensive plays in stocks were in vogue today. We'll see next week if that continues or whether the bulls use the sell off as another opportunity to buy back in. One thing is for certain - the aura of inevitability about a seemingly perpetually rising stock market, took a hit this week. Now we wait for the next batch of earnings reports and the next bit of economic data releases.
Enjoy the weekend... time for some meat on the smoker. Then again, with its high price right now, maybe cheerios are on the menu.
Adding to the general lack of enthusiasm for gold at this time is the lackluster performance of the mining shares which continue to act as an anchor on any upward movement of the yellow metal.
Looking forward into next week, if gold is going to generate some more excitement, it is going to have to break through this week's high and convincingly clear the $1340 level. If it can do so, you will see some hedge fund short covering. If it stalls here near this level, watch for further long liquidation and some more new short selling to emerge. If the bears can change the handle from "13" back to "12", $1280 will come back into play at the lower portion of the recent trading range.
In looking over this week's Commitment of Traders report, we saw a reduction in the net long position of the hedge fund community of nearly 8,000 contracts. Most of that came from long liquidation ahead of the FOMC with a smaller contribution by the addition of some 2500 new short positions from the hedgies. That FOMC statement gave the bulls some fodder but it was a sort of two-edged sword.
One edge was clearly its dovish tone which suggested that interest rates will stay near zero for longer than many market participants were led to expect by the same Fed. The other edge was the clear concern expressed about the lack of inflationary pressures. The Fed, along with the ECB I might add, is clearly worried about deflationary issues. When the Central Bank expresses its concern over the lack of inflation in the economy, it is certainly not a ringing endorsement of a stronger gold price.
Along that line, the PPI numbers that came out today were quite a shock to the market as the number for March came in at a rise of 0.5%. The result was another set of headwinds to buffet gold as traders interpreted that data as evidence that the Fed could actually accelerate its bond buying program and any interest rate hike. Those are negative for gold especially when the market had just gotten the Fed's comments about the lack of inflation a mere two days earlier!
JP Morgan's earnings numbers set the negative tone for the overall stock market today. The broad selloff in equities was one of the reasons that gold did not break down as sharply as some might have expected. The Dollar showed some buoyancy today on the heels of that PPI number but not enough to set it up for a sharp rally.
All in all, it was a day in which volatility in the currency markets and in gold, was relatively mild by comparison to recent days.
Such was not the case in the grain markets, where news of Chinese rejection of corn shipments roiled that market with some spillover being seen in the soybeans. Apparently the Chinese are balking on imports of biotech corn. Reports indicate that China has rejected 1.45 million metric tons of US corn since mid-November. The reason? They claim it contained an unapproved variety of corn which was developed by the Swiss seed maker Sygenta. The variety is called Viptera. Also involved is another variety Duracade.
The National Grain and Feed Association, in a report circulated among its members, expressed the concern that pollen drift ( through the wind ) will make it unavoidable that the variety will impact corn shipments into China. Obviously big US grain shippers are worried. At least for today, that seem to supercede the latest USDA carryover numbers that we got this week.
A quick comment on the S&P 500. I mentioned in a post yesterday that an important support zone on the weekly chart was between 1830 - 1820. The market closed below that level today which puts it in a negative posture as we move into next week. Defensive plays in stocks were in vogue today. We'll see next week if that continues or whether the bulls use the sell off as another opportunity to buy back in. One thing is for certain - the aura of inevitability about a seemingly perpetually rising stock market, took a hit this week. Now we wait for the next batch of earnings reports and the next bit of economic data releases.
Enjoy the weekend... time for some meat on the smoker. Then again, with its high price right now, maybe cheerios are on the menu.
الخميس، 10 أبريل 2014
Foreign Central Bank Holdings of US Treasuries back on the Rise again
A while back, I posted a chart of the Custodial Holdings of Treasuries for Foreign Central Banks that revealed a sharp drop in the number held from over $3.021 trillion to near $2.855 trillion, or about $166 billion. At the time I mentioned it was rather remarkable and thus warranted monitoring.
Shortly after the number became public, we had the usual "end of the world" scenarios for the US Dollar as the perma-gold bull community began talking up their usual the "run on the Dollar has begun" thesis. Many were talking Russian dumping of US Treasuries as a move away from the Dollar that was going to snowball. Of course, implied in all this was talk of gold shooting to the moon again.
Well, here we are exactly 4 weeks after hitting the low point in those reported Treasury holdings and we are back to $2.972 trillion, not far off the all-time peak noted above and the largest number since January 30, 2014.
Apparently the run on the Dollar has not begun in earnest among foreign central banks. Here is the chart:
Shortly after the number became public, we had the usual "end of the world" scenarios for the US Dollar as the perma-gold bull community began talking up their usual the "run on the Dollar has begun" thesis. Many were talking Russian dumping of US Treasuries as a move away from the Dollar that was going to snowball. Of course, implied in all this was talk of gold shooting to the moon again.
Well, here we are exactly 4 weeks after hitting the low point in those reported Treasury holdings and we are back to $2.972 trillion, not far off the all-time peak noted above and the largest number since January 30, 2014.
Apparently the run on the Dollar has not begun in earnest among foreign central banks. Here is the chart:
Safe Haven bids boost Gold
Gold put in a nice showing today building on last week's bounce away from chart support near $1280 and the change in handles from "12" to "13".
The FOMC minutes released yesterday continue to put pressure on the US Dollar, but even more importantly, acted to depress US interest rates. That is the key driver for gold in my view at this time. Gold seems to struggle when interest rates here in the US rise as investors see little threat of inflation and seek out assets that will throw off some sort of yield rather than the yellow metal which only provides gains if it continues to rise in price. In a benign inflation environment, many do not believe gold will continue to rise.
For those who are new to this blog, a bit of a disclaimer here - I am giving you the broader market view of the inflation picture ( plus that of the Fed ), not my own view. As someone who lives in the real world and sees grocery prices moving higher, health insurance premiums rising, local taxes and fees rising, etc., I reject the argument that consumers are not getting squeezed by such things. However, until the broader market consensus shifts towards genuine fears of inflation, rallies in gold are going to be viewed as selling opportunities.
By the way, those record high beef prices that are finally being felt at the grocery store should begin to decline over the course of the next few weeks. It takes a while for the higher priced beef ( and pork for that matter ) to make its way into the pipeline but wholesale beef prices have already peaked for now and are working lower. Consumers should see some relief on both the beef and the pork front beginning within the next few weeks. What happens this summer depends on whether or not grocers can move the high priced stuff during the warmer months. There is an old adage that the "best cure for high prices is high prices" and that is what we will soon see as demand will shift to chicken until consumers get sick of that. Maybe then beef and pork prices will stabilize at lower levels and we can all afford to eat bacon and throw some red meat on the pit smokers. Grocers are usually hesitant to raise retail red meat prices ( they have excellent margins in meat ) for fear of stunting demand but with the goings on in the livestock markets over the last few weeks, many have had no choice but to bite the bullet, raise prices and hope for the best. From what I am hearing, consumers are noticing and are balking.
Back to gold -
From a chart perspective, gold continues to remain within the broad trading range that I have outlined for some time now. It will need a catalyst of some sort to kick it higher or send it lower. What that might be remains unclear to me.
As you can see from the chart, it has run into some selling near the resistance level noted near the $1320 region. Above that, resistance is layered in approximately $20 increments, first near $1340 and then again near $1360.
Downside support comes in near and just above $1300 followed by our old friend near $1280.
On the ADX, which indicates a trendless market, the bulls have regained the short term advantage ( when it held at $1280). Stochastics are rising as price moves up in the range showing the near term friendly picture. How this market handles this $1320 level today and tomorrow, will be a key as to how to approach it. The trading range is pretty broad ( up near $1400 on the top and $1280 on the bottom ). We could see this range tighten up a bit and narrow down somewhat from the current $120.
As mentioned above, I cannot see what would cause this market to break out of its current range at this time. The Dollar would either have to drop off sharply breaking down below 79 on the USDX or interest rates would have to plummet sharply here in the US, along with perhaps a larger selloff in the broader equity markets to take it up out of the top end of the range. On the downside, we would need to see a sharp rally higher in the US Dollar ( alongside especially of a sharp selloff in the Euro ) and a surge in interest rates above the 3% level in the Ten Year to take it down below $1280 in my view.
Take a look at Eurogold ( gold priced in terms of the Euro ). Notice how it too is essentially rangebound. The ADX reveals the lack of a clearly defined trend. The top of the range is up near the 1000 euro region; the bottom down near 880 - 860. If gold could clear the 1000 euro level, we might finally have something to write about. Can it do that? Who knows but if the ECB were to actually proceed with their chatter about their own version of QE and forcing banks to pay interest on reserves held there at the ECB, then we might finally see the Euro weaken sharply enough to send gold higher and through that 1000 level.
Apparently Europe is having the same problems over there as we are over here - a lack of inflation and in their case, an excessively strong currency, which no one over there wants.
Back to the safe haven thing - equities are showing some surprising signs of weakness today, which is odd considering that they got all bulled up yesterday on those dovish FOMC minutes.
A lot of technicians are watching the 1830 - 1820 zone on the S&P 500. That is a big support level. If it were to give way, especially on a closing weekly basis, we could finally see some deeper losses in stocks. As you can see on the weekly chart, that is some uptrend so unless bulls are sent packing by an avalanche of selling, odds favor them coming in and continuing to buy dips. Maybe we can get some range trading/consolidation in stocks for a change instead of this nearly one-way ticket north.
The gold mining shares are providing little if any support to gold judging from their mediocre performance today. One gets the impression that they do not know whether to follow the broader market lower or the metal higher. Either way, it is not exactly a ringing endorsement of further strong gains in the actual metal. Then again the day is yet young and we could see some better buying enter before the close of today's session.
Switching gears just one more time - recent hog slaughter data shows its running a bit more than 7% below last year's levels. USDA told us in their recent Hogs and Pigs report that the worst we could expect was 5%. Their own data is proving the inaccuracy of that last quarterly report; however, the trade is still confused and unclear. Those who are lending credence to that report have been able to gain some advantage but yesterday's bizarre and extremely rare move from limit down to limit up within the matter of a few hours time shows just how unsettled this issue is in the industry. It is going to take at least another full month to sort it out and even then we might not really know for sure. In all my years of trading the livestock markets, I have never seen the hogs so unsettled or so volatile. They are making my old deceased friend, the pork bellies contract, look tame by comparison and that is saying something. I miss that contract and all the shenanigans that accompanied it.
Corn is moving lower today as once again improving weather conditions are stirring talk of field work taking place. Beans are moving lower probably due to some profit taking by longs who have been making small fortunes playing the demand side of the bean equation. Large expected soybean acreage this season is taking a backseat to insatiable demand for beans. While prices for corn and beans are far off record highs from two years ago, they are still very profitable. I am happy for our hard working farmers but I still must take this opportunity to vent against that boondoggle ethanol mandate. I hate that stuff with a passion because of its adverse impact on our livestock sector. That plus the idea of burning 40% of our corn crop in our gasoline tanks strikes me as the height of stupidity. Whenever I hear some politician from the corn belt start talking up a 15% ethanol blend, I want to scream. Anyone seen what that stuff does to seals?
The FOMC minutes released yesterday continue to put pressure on the US Dollar, but even more importantly, acted to depress US interest rates. That is the key driver for gold in my view at this time. Gold seems to struggle when interest rates here in the US rise as investors see little threat of inflation and seek out assets that will throw off some sort of yield rather than the yellow metal which only provides gains if it continues to rise in price. In a benign inflation environment, many do not believe gold will continue to rise.
For those who are new to this blog, a bit of a disclaimer here - I am giving you the broader market view of the inflation picture ( plus that of the Fed ), not my own view. As someone who lives in the real world and sees grocery prices moving higher, health insurance premiums rising, local taxes and fees rising, etc., I reject the argument that consumers are not getting squeezed by such things. However, until the broader market consensus shifts towards genuine fears of inflation, rallies in gold are going to be viewed as selling opportunities.
By the way, those record high beef prices that are finally being felt at the grocery store should begin to decline over the course of the next few weeks. It takes a while for the higher priced beef ( and pork for that matter ) to make its way into the pipeline but wholesale beef prices have already peaked for now and are working lower. Consumers should see some relief on both the beef and the pork front beginning within the next few weeks. What happens this summer depends on whether or not grocers can move the high priced stuff during the warmer months. There is an old adage that the "best cure for high prices is high prices" and that is what we will soon see as demand will shift to chicken until consumers get sick of that. Maybe then beef and pork prices will stabilize at lower levels and we can all afford to eat bacon and throw some red meat on the pit smokers. Grocers are usually hesitant to raise retail red meat prices ( they have excellent margins in meat ) for fear of stunting demand but with the goings on in the livestock markets over the last few weeks, many have had no choice but to bite the bullet, raise prices and hope for the best. From what I am hearing, consumers are noticing and are balking.
Back to gold -
From a chart perspective, gold continues to remain within the broad trading range that I have outlined for some time now. It will need a catalyst of some sort to kick it higher or send it lower. What that might be remains unclear to me.
As you can see from the chart, it has run into some selling near the resistance level noted near the $1320 region. Above that, resistance is layered in approximately $20 increments, first near $1340 and then again near $1360.
Downside support comes in near and just above $1300 followed by our old friend near $1280.
On the ADX, which indicates a trendless market, the bulls have regained the short term advantage ( when it held at $1280). Stochastics are rising as price moves up in the range showing the near term friendly picture. How this market handles this $1320 level today and tomorrow, will be a key as to how to approach it. The trading range is pretty broad ( up near $1400 on the top and $1280 on the bottom ). We could see this range tighten up a bit and narrow down somewhat from the current $120.
As mentioned above, I cannot see what would cause this market to break out of its current range at this time. The Dollar would either have to drop off sharply breaking down below 79 on the USDX or interest rates would have to plummet sharply here in the US, along with perhaps a larger selloff in the broader equity markets to take it up out of the top end of the range. On the downside, we would need to see a sharp rally higher in the US Dollar ( alongside especially of a sharp selloff in the Euro ) and a surge in interest rates above the 3% level in the Ten Year to take it down below $1280 in my view.
Take a look at Eurogold ( gold priced in terms of the Euro ). Notice how it too is essentially rangebound. The ADX reveals the lack of a clearly defined trend. The top of the range is up near the 1000 euro region; the bottom down near 880 - 860. If gold could clear the 1000 euro level, we might finally have something to write about. Can it do that? Who knows but if the ECB were to actually proceed with their chatter about their own version of QE and forcing banks to pay interest on reserves held there at the ECB, then we might finally see the Euro weaken sharply enough to send gold higher and through that 1000 level.
Apparently Europe is having the same problems over there as we are over here - a lack of inflation and in their case, an excessively strong currency, which no one over there wants.
Back to the safe haven thing - equities are showing some surprising signs of weakness today, which is odd considering that they got all bulled up yesterday on those dovish FOMC minutes.
A lot of technicians are watching the 1830 - 1820 zone on the S&P 500. That is a big support level. If it were to give way, especially on a closing weekly basis, we could finally see some deeper losses in stocks. As you can see on the weekly chart, that is some uptrend so unless bulls are sent packing by an avalanche of selling, odds favor them coming in and continuing to buy dips. Maybe we can get some range trading/consolidation in stocks for a change instead of this nearly one-way ticket north.
The gold mining shares are providing little if any support to gold judging from their mediocre performance today. One gets the impression that they do not know whether to follow the broader market lower or the metal higher. Either way, it is not exactly a ringing endorsement of further strong gains in the actual metal. Then again the day is yet young and we could see some better buying enter before the close of today's session.
Switching gears just one more time - recent hog slaughter data shows its running a bit more than 7% below last year's levels. USDA told us in their recent Hogs and Pigs report that the worst we could expect was 5%. Their own data is proving the inaccuracy of that last quarterly report; however, the trade is still confused and unclear. Those who are lending credence to that report have been able to gain some advantage but yesterday's bizarre and extremely rare move from limit down to limit up within the matter of a few hours time shows just how unsettled this issue is in the industry. It is going to take at least another full month to sort it out and even then we might not really know for sure. In all my years of trading the livestock markets, I have never seen the hogs so unsettled or so volatile. They are making my old deceased friend, the pork bellies contract, look tame by comparison and that is saying something. I miss that contract and all the shenanigans that accompanied it.
Corn is moving lower today as once again improving weather conditions are stirring talk of field work taking place. Beans are moving lower probably due to some profit taking by longs who have been making small fortunes playing the demand side of the bean equation. Large expected soybean acreage this season is taking a backseat to insatiable demand for beans. While prices for corn and beans are far off record highs from two years ago, they are still very profitable. I am happy for our hard working farmers but I still must take this opportunity to vent against that boondoggle ethanol mandate. I hate that stuff with a passion because of its adverse impact on our livestock sector. That plus the idea of burning 40% of our corn crop in our gasoline tanks strikes me as the height of stupidity. Whenever I hear some politician from the corn belt start talking up a 15% ethanol blend, I want to scream. Anyone seen what that stuff does to seals?
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