Western-based investors simply want no part of the metal right now which brings us to the mining shares. The GDXJ, an index composed of junior miners is pulling a disappearing act. Down over 2% today alone, the index made not only a NEW WEEKLY LOW close for the year, but has now gone negative on the year with today's close at 30.95.
The Index is now a mere two points away from its all time low!
Simply put, if it looks like gold, guys running investment portfolios are not interested in it.
The exception is some hedge funds who are still buying gold over at the Comex as can be seen from this updated chart of the Commitment of Traders report from this afternoon. They were sizeable buyers this past week. However, this is noteworthy, the bulk of that buying was SHORT COVERING, not fresh buying. There were some 13,000 shorts covered as opposed to some 10,000 new longs instituted. It was this strong wave of short covering that took the metal up to its high made this week near $1255.
It has been downhill since Tuesday however, ( the cutoff day for the COT report) with the gold price shedding some $24 since then. I cannot say for certain as I do not have the data in front of me and will not be able to see it until next Friday, but I suspect we had some decent long side liquidation from Wednesday on. As long as the VIX sinks lower and stocks ride higher, gold will be sold by speculative interests.
Would you like to see the main driver of the gold price? Contrary to the perma gold bull camp, it is not the bullion banks but rather the big speculators; more specifically hedge funds.
Take a look at this chart using their NET POSITION and overlaying it against the price of the metal. As shown before here on this site, the price rides up and down in perfect harmony with their buying or selling.
Just for illustration purposes, here is a chart of gold over at the Comex.
As you can see from the indicator below the price graph, the market remains trendless and stuck in a choppy back and forth type of trade since holding above that former double bottom ( now triple bottom ) near $1180. Short covering and some bottom pickers managed to run the price up to the 50 day moving average before the sellers showed up and the buyers backed off from chasing it. One cannot blame them when they look over at the falling holdings in the GLD and the collapsing mining shares.
The metal has so far managed to hold above support near $1220 but is stuck below $1260. One or the other of these levels must give way to generate some more volume and bring in some excitement into the lackluster trade that is being seen in there for now. Bears would dearly love to kick the floor out below $1220 and run the metal down to test $1200 but there has been pretty good demand coming out of India for the festival season which is propping the metal up for now. Bulls know where the upside stops are lurking; they just cannot reach them however.
Speaking of new lows - the commodity sector, as illustrated by the GSCI or Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, notched a fresh new WEEKLY CLOSING LOW of 49 months!
There was a great deal of short covering in the grains this week and that component of this index helped keep the index from finishing even lower than it otherwise would have. However, grains were all weak today once more along with crude oil and its products.
Gasoline futures remain new FOUR YEAR LOWS. Once the beef finally tops out, which I still expect very soon ( today's Cattle on Feed report discussed later ) we will finally see grain prices, meat prices and fuel prices all moving lower in sync. Red meat has been the exception for reasons cited here very often the last few months but as I said back then, expect lower pork, chicken and beef prices in the 4th quarter and continuing into next year. Hallelujah for we meat lovers!
Let me shift gears just a bit ( still commodity related however ) and throw up a chart of a metal that I rarely post here. I am speaking of platinum, and of its sister metal palladium. The reason I bring these up at this time is to illustrate why silver is having problems ( note - it has nothing to do with some supposed nefarious plot by the feds to manipulate its price lower ).
Platinum and Palladium are industrial metals primarily. Yes, some buy them in the role of alternative precious metals but such demand makes up only a small percentage of their use. It is in the industrial arena that demand is generated.
What do you see when you look at these charts? If you answer: "FALLING INDUSTRIAL DEMAND DUE TO SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH", go straight to the head of the class!
Take platinum for example - the price recently made a FIVE YEAR LOW! This year alone it fell more than 15% from its starting level at one point although it briefly recovered and is now trading down only about 10-11% for the year.
Palladium fares much better than Platinum as it has a different set of fundamentals but it is currently essentially flat on the year.
Heck if I had to pick a metal to own, it would be palladium based on its rather stalwart chart, given the overall weakness plaguing the commodity sector in general.
The Dollar ended the week still stuck in the midst of its trading range from 87 - 85 basis the USDX. The Yen was initially higher overnight as equities were weak but as they recovered in the West, it gave back most of its gains. Just remember if you are trading the yen, it is essentially a currency trading the "RISK ON; RISK OFF" trade.
I will get some more up later about the grains and the moo-moos. The Cattle on Feed report was out today and it contained no surprises that I could see. The trade estimated the numbers pretty well so I would except little reaction from the report on Monday morning. If anything, the market will trade the sharply lower beef on Friday but with the sharp selloff today, in anticipation of a less friendly report than what we have been used to seeing the last few months, any bearishness that some might see in the report is already dialed in. As I said, the beef and the cash will be key, much more so than this report, which does tell us that cattle numbers have picked up ever so slightly.
The grains? All I can say is that I am overjoyed that November soybean option expiration is over as of today! What a nightmare the antics tied to the massive amount of options written against that month contract created this week for we grain traders! First it was the 960 call writers, then the 980 call writers and finally the $10 call writers that got obliterated. The market had what I and others refer to as a "MELT UP". Simply put, there was no one on the sell side of sufficient size to absorb all of the buying generated by professional option writers who had sold a slew of calls and were forced to buy futures as the price moved past their strike level and put those calls into the money.
From a fundamental standpoint, I see nothing ( other than some harvest delays and some surprise big export numbers from China yesterday ) that could have justified a run of nearly $1.00 higher in the beans this month. That being said, short term technical always trump fundamentals. I am betting that we are going to see Chinese cancellations sooner rather than later on those bean 'sales'.
More later.... I Need a break!
