Speculators Endorsing Lower Copper Prices

Based on the recent COT report through Tuesday of this week, every single category of speculator, is on the net short side of the copper market, whether it be hedge funds, other large reportables or the general public.

Swap Dealers are carrying the entirety of the net long interest in this market at the current time.

Copper prices have been grinding steadily lower due to concerns over slowing global economic growth, especially in China but got a bit of a respite today on the US GDP number, which although it was within expectations, showed some pretty good growth for Q2 2014.

Silver is showing a transition as Swap Dealers and Commercials reduce net short exposure with the former now holding a small net long position.

Large hedge funds are net short and with the metal probing lower near $17, can be expected to have upped that short position since Tuesday. Other large reportables and the general public both remain net long but both are also selling as they liquidate longs and add to new shorts.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index settled lower for the week but managed to recover from its worst levels at the close of trading Friday helped by strength in crude oil, the products and some of the softs as well as cattle which closed limit up.

One last thing for right now:

Look at this chart of the US Dollar. Is that impressive or what? This week makes ELEVEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS of higher weekly closes. I will have to go back and survey the charts but surely this is one of the best performances that the greenback has shown in many years.

Looking at the chart one can see that the currency has clearly and decisively broken out above a congestion range trade that has been in plce for over 2 1/2 years now. All applicable Fibonacci retracement levels measured off the June 2010 high near 89 have been bested. Conventional Fibonacci analysis would portend a move all the way back to that peak. There does look to be some resistance coming in near the 86.50-87.00 zone prior to that however that would need to be overcome.

By all standards of TA, the Dollar is overbought and is due for some sort of setback; however, currency markets are one of the better trending markets once a solid trend is underway and thus are more prone to ignore overbought or oversold readings than other markets might be. This is because, generally speaking, the fundamental factors that go into establishing a currency trend are of much longer duration in forming and much less prone to undergoing rapid reversals.

For now, the Dollar is King once again!