here are the numbers we are currently working with compliments of the USDA:
In million metric tons.
--change--
--2014/2015- --2013/2014-- Nov 14/15 Nov 14/15
Nov Oct Nov Oct Oct 14/15 Nov 13/14
World 312.06 311.20 285.01 285.01 0.86 27.05
United States 107.73 106.87 91.39 91.39 0.86 16.34
Total Foreign 204.33 204.33 193.62 193.62 0.00 10.71
South America
Brazil 94.00 94.00 86.70 86.70 0.00 7.30
Argentina 55.00 55.00 54.00 54.00 0.00 1.00
Paraguay 8.20 8.20 8.10 8.10 0.00 0.10
Bolivia 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 0.00 0.10
Uruguay 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.50 0.00 -0.10
East Asia
China 11.80 11.80 12.20 12.20 0.00 -0.40
Korea South 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.00 -0.02
Korea North 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.01
Japan 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.01
The thing that really stands out to me is the size of the increase of global supply for the 2014-2015 marketing year compared to last year. What is even more interesting is that Brazil had a huge crop last year and this year the USDA is projecting it to be even larger. Barring any sort of serious weather related issues down there for their growing season, there is not going to be any shortage of beans anytime soon.
None of this however has seemed to faze the hedge funds which have been buying beans like they are going out of style of late. It is also apparently, at least for the immediate moment, lost on China, which has been sucking up beans from here in the US like an oversized vacuum cleaner.
We'll now see with these numbers, if the cancellations from China begin in earnest or whether they will play some more with the US markets.
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